China will provide 19 million additional subs and India 26 million. However, the US will lose 14.4 million pay-TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024 – down by 16%.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “We have updated our forecasts based on June 2019 reports. The US is the world’s worst performer – with no uplift expected over the next five years. Other countries will experience a slowdown – or even some small declines in subscriber numbers – but no other country will match the gloomy projections for the US.”
China will continue to supply a third of the world’s pay-TV subscribers, with 356 million expected by end-2024. India will bring in another 17% of the total by 2024 – or 184 million. Therefore, China and India will together provide half the world’s pay-TV subscribers by 2024.
IPTV is the pay-TV winner. IPTV will add 100 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 357 million. Pay IPTV penetration will climb to a fifth of TV households by 2024, up from only 2.5% at end-2010 and 15.4% at end-2018.
Global pay-TV revenues [subscription fees and PPV movies and TV episodes] peaked in 2016 at $205 billion. Revenues will fall by 17% to $171 billion in 2024. This is lower than 2010 – despite the number of pay TV subscribers rising by 359 million between 2010 and 2024. US pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $106 billion, but the total will drop to $70 billion in 2024.