Revenues will fall by 14% to $177 billion in 2024. This is the same level as 2010 – despite the number of pay-TV subscribers climbing by 380 million between 2010 and 2024.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Subscriber growth is mainly in developing countries where ARPU is lower than the developed countries. In addition, subs are moving away from standalone packages to double-play and triple-play bundles. Standalone packages are more lucrative to TV.”
Eight of the top 10 countries will lose revenues between 2018 and 2024. The US will fall by $21 billion – or down by 22%. US pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $106 billion, but its total will drop to $76 billion in 2024. The US is not the only loser, the UK will fall by nearly $1 billion between 2018 and 2024 – or down by 14%.
Murray added: “On a positive note, India will gain $1 billion in pay-TV revenues between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to $6.32 billion – up by nearly 20%. India will move up from sixth to third place over this period. The second biggest winner will be Indonesia, with a $786 million gain.”
Revenues will decline in 51 countries between 2018 and 2024 – so that means that they won’t fall in 87 countries.
The top five countries will account for 59% ($105 billion) of global pay-TV revenues by 2024. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 23% ($40 billion). Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 82% of pay TV revenues by 2024.