This global forecast shows the stark contrast between the heavily AVOD Asia compared to the SVOD frenzy going on in the US and Europe. The US market will rise from a combined paid SVOD (including vMVPD) and reach 236.6 million subscriptions by the end of 2023, from a base today of some 146.5 million.
Europe and Asia will be neck and neck in SVOD revenues by 2023, but with far fewer subscribers in Europe, each paying significantly more than those in Asia, a region dominated by frighteningly large Advertising VOD streaming numbers.
Netflix will continue to lead in SVOD in both subscribers numbers (outside of China), but will make up 194 million SVoD customers out of 743 million globally by 2023, some 26% of total global subscribers. In the US Netflix today represents 44% of subscriptions, but will only be 31% of the increased US subscription levels by 2023.
One of the new leaders to emerge from the battle for the US market will be WarnerMedia, under its new AT&T defined, freemium strategy reaching 29.6 million SVOD homes by 2023. Disney is also likely to have multiple SVOD service types, but is likely to struggle outside the US.
Europe will be a mishmash of different approaches with pure play US operators like Netflix and Amazon now established, US studios beginning to stake a claim, and local broadcasters ganging up to challenge them, while the region has its own pure play SVOD players also such as Maxdome, Sky, Zattoo, and Rakuten TV.
The Asia Pacific market is highly skewed with China expected to amass 245 million SVOD subscribers, some 72% of the total region, but the average spend will be just $2 to $3 a month. Latin American is a three horse race between the leader Netflix, America Movil’s Claro TV and Televisa’s Blim, with US studios looking to play King maker there.