Global triple-play subscriptions will reach 400 million by 2017; up by nearly 300 million on the end-2011 total and up by 380 million on the 2007 total, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.
Covering 80 countries, the 308-page Triple-Play Forecasts report forecasts that the Asia Pacific region will contribute 257 million of the 2017 total; up by more than 200 million on the end-2011 total. China alone will have 193 million triple-play subscribers by 2017 (with only 39 million recorded at end-2011) – or 48% of the global total.
Simon Murray, author of the report, said: “The number of triple-play households will overtake the standalone TV total in 2013. The standalone TV total will begin to decline from 2016 as homes convert to bundles. There will be 84 million double-play subscribers in 2017.”
Murray continued: “So 61% of cable and DSL/fiber TV subscribers will pay for triple-play bundles by 2017, up from 38% in 2011 and only 21% in 2007. By way of comparison, the standalone TV proportion will fall from 63% in 2007 and 49% by end-2011 to only 27% by 2017.”
Despite rapid growth in IPTV subscriptions, cable will still contribute nearly two-thirds of triple-play subscribers by 2017. However, triple-play penetration will remain higher in DSL and fibre homes (81% by 2017) than in cable homes (54%).
This report defines triple-play as homes subscribing to TV, broadband and fixed telephony services. Double-play is TV and broadband subscribers. These are subscribers to cable and DSL & fibre networks, so the figures exclude satellite TV providers (such as BSkyB in the United Kingdom) which supply triple-play and double-play bundles.
More than a quarter of the world’s TV households (covering 80 countries) will subscribe to triple-play services by 2017. This is up from only 8% penetration at end-2011 and only 2% at end-2007. Proportions in 2017 will be highest in the Netherlands and Belgium (both with 64%), followed by Taiwan (60%) and Singapore (59%). Eight countries will have more than 50% triple-play penetration by 2017.
Triple-play subscription revenues will reach $149 billion (€120.8 billion) by 2017. The US ($59 billion) will account for 40% of the world’s triple-play revenues by 2017, followed by Japan ($13 billion), China ($12 billion) and Canada ($10 billion). From the $93 billion to be added between 2011 and 2017, the US will supply $32 billion, with Japan and China each up by $10 billion.
Triple-play revenues overtook standalone TV revenues in 2010. Standalone TV revenues will start falling from 2014 as subscribers defect to bundles and as cable and DSL/fiber operators offer lower-priced packages due to greater competition from other platforms.
For more information, go to the Broadband TV News webshop.