The global “content arms race” that defined the early years of streaming has come to an end, with platforms now prioritising profitability and scale over volume commissioning, according to analyst Ben Keen.
Speaking at Stream TV Europe in Lisbon, Keen said the industry has entered a “new streaming reality” following years of heavy losses among traditional media groups attempting to compete with market leaders.
“The road to profitability in the streaming wars has been a tough, tough one,” Keen said, pointing to sustained losses across major broadcasters and studios, in contrast to the strong profitability of Netflix and YouTube.
He added: “If you look at who really won, it’s very clear… Netflix and YouTube.”
Keen identified 2022 as the high-water mark for content investment, when the industry collectively spent $108 billion (€100 billion) on non-sports programming.
Since then, spending has fallen sharply, with global investment in English-language TV declining by 8% last year alone. The number of scripted dramas produced in Europe also peaked in 2022 and has since declined.
“The peak TV bubble has burst,” Keen said, describing the shift as a structural market correction rather than a temporary slowdown.
While streamers remain significant players, their commissioning activity in Europe is already contracting. According to Keen, streamer commissions for high-end TV drama have fallen by 8% since 2022.
Public broadcasters continue to dominate the European ecosystem, accounting for more than half of all scripted output, followed by commercial broadcasters. Streamers account for around 16% of high-end drama production, though they contribute a disproportionately large share of total investment.
Among international players, Netflix remains the most active, now the second-largest commissioner of high-end TV in Europe behind the BBC.
Around half of all streamer-commissioned content in Europe is produced in just four countries, led by Spain and the UK.
Keen noted that Netflix is the only global platform commissioning content across all major European production markets, reflecting its strategy of investing in local-language content with international appeal.
The shift towards profitability is also reshaping production economics. In the UK, broadcaster spending on new content has declined since 2022, with public service broadcasters allocating just over 10% of budgets to drama.
At the same time, US studios and streamers continue to outspend local broadcasters significantly, with budgets averaging £7 million (€8.2 million) more per hour over the past five years.
High-end productions remain expensive, with some streamer-backed series exceeding £10 million per hour.
The tightening market is also impacting partnerships. Keen said co-commissions between broadcasters and studios have fallen by 42% since the 2022 peak, reflecting reduced willingness among global players to share financial risk.
“Making TV shows is incredibly expensive… you need partners to make the budgets work,” he said, adding that partnerships can still double production budgets when they occur.
Looking ahead, Keen expects continued investment from global streamers in European content, but with a more selective approach.
“Content investment will be made at reduced levels and focused on winning viewers in a much more competitive market,” Keen said.
Content strategies will increasingly be shaped by hybrid business models combining subscription and advertising, with a stronger focus on return on investment and audience retention.
