RTL Group has lowered its revenue and profit forecast for the full year, as the persistent downturn in the German and French TV advertising markets continues to weigh heavily on its performance.
The revision comes despite strong growth in the company’s streaming business, which is rapidly approaching profitability.
The warning lands at a sensitive moment: only days after parent company Bertelsmann outlined an upcoming leadership change at the Luxembourg-based broadcaster, with Clément Schwebig set to take over as CEO in mid-2026. For now, however, it remains Thomas Rabe who must present the sobering figures – and the scale of the challenges ahead.
According to RTL Group’s quarterly statement, revenue for the first nine months of the year fell by 2.2% to €4.1 billion, driven primarily by declining linear TV advertising income and a drop in Fremantle’s content revenues, particularly in the United States. While digital advertising revenue surged by 31.7%, it was not enough to offset the fall in traditional channels. Third-quarter revenue remained flat at €1.337 billion, offering only a modest sign of stability.
The slump in advertising is particularly sharp. Across the first nine months, RTL Group’s TV advertising revenue dropped by 7.4% to €1.49 billion, with the decline accelerating to 8.3% in the third quarter. In France, market conditions were similarly weak. Fremantle, the group’s content arm, also felt the chill: revenue dropped by 5.1% to €1.35 billion, affected by phasing effects and the lack of last year’s America’s Got Talent spin-off boost.
Given the continued weakness of the market, RTL Group has now abandoned its previous expectation of a slight recovery in the second half of the year. In August, the broadcaster still anticipated TV advertising growth of 2-3%; it now predicts a high single-digit decline. As a result, full-year revenue is expected to land between €6.0 billion and €6.1 billion – well below the earlier target of €6.45 billion. Adjusted EBITA has been cut from €780 million to €650 million.
“The market environment remains challenging, with a reduction of TV advertising revenue in our core markets and an accelerated shift from linear TV to streaming,” said CEO Thomas Rabe. Still, he highlighted that “all streaming performance indicators – revenue, paying subscribers and viewing time – continue to point in the right direction.”
Indeed, streaming remains a rare bright spot. Revenue from RTL+ in Germany and Hungary and M6+ in France jumped by 26.6% to €351 million between January and September, supported by higher subscription prices, rising ad income and a growing subscriber base. Paying subscribers increased by 17.4% year on year to 7.59 million, with RTL+ in Germany alone accounting for 6.64 million customers. RTL Group is confident it will surpass the eight-million mark by the end of the year and insists it remains on track to make its streaming operations profitable in 2026.
The group is simultaneously preparing for one of the most significant strategic moves in its history: the acquisition of pay-TV broadcaster Sky Deutschland. Regulatory approval from the European Commission is now expected in the first half of 2026. Previously, the decision was anticipated during the course of 2026. To prepare for a possible variable price component linked to RTL Group’s share price, the company has launched another share buyback programme worth up to €29.2 million, bringing the total targeted volume to roughly four million shares.
Despite the downbeat short-term outlook, RTL Group says its medium-term expectations remain unchanged, including an adjusted EBITA target of €1 billion. Rabe argues that the combination of streaming profitability, synergies from the Sky deal, cost reductions and efficiencies gained through AI will strengthen the group as the market recovers.
