The UK’s proposed move to an all-IP television market in the 2030s risks leaving millions of people without access to any TV at all, according to new analysis that challenges government assumptions on broadband take-up and affordability.
The Observer newspaper has seen an upcoming report from independent analyst Mathew Horsman that warns up to 5.4m UK households – representing around 10m people – could be left without access to live television if the UK retires all broadcast TV transmitters and moves fully to internet delivery. The warning is in direct contrast to modelling used by the government to plan the future of Freeview.
The Department for Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) is expected to take a decision in 2026 on when to begin winding down the UK’s terrestrial TV network. That decision will draw heavily on work by Exeter University, which forecasts that by 2040, 95% of UK homes will watch TV over broadband and just 1.4m people – mostly older viewers in lower-income groups – will still rely on terrestrial.
Horsman’s analysis disputes that outlook. His position is that the shift is moving faster, politically and regulatorily, than the real-world capabilities of households, and that digital exclusion will be a structural barrier well into the 2030s and beyond.
The report was commissioned by Arqiva, though Horsmann tells The Observer the transmission company did not shape his thinking.
The timetable being modelled in Whitehall points to a full terrestrial switch-off in 2035. That would follow the expiry of Channel 4, Channel 5 and ITV’s current public service broadcasting licences in 2034, the same year their distribution contracts with Arqiva – which operates the UK’s broadcast transmitter network – are due to end. The BBC’s current transmission contract with Arqiva runs to 2030, and its next Charter review with DCMS begins in 2027.
Broadband TV News notes that while the PSBs are restricted by their licences, other private channels could simply vote with their feet.
Regulator Ofcom has pushed for an early decision, telling government in July that clarity in 2026 will be essential “to manage an inclusive transition”.
However, Horsman’s figures suggest that setting a firm switch-off date without a nationwide affordability and inclusion plan risks creating a hard cut rather than a managed migration – and could leave millions of mostly lower-income and older viewers with no free-to-air TV at all.
