Rather like Twain, reports of the death of the set-top box may have been greatly exaggerated.
According to Futuresource Consulting’s latest market outlook report, global set-top box (STB) shipments fell 1.4% year-on-year in 2024, to end the year at just over 181 million units.
However, despite a projected 1.7% CAGR decline in global STB shipments out to 2029, Futuresource has identified continued relevance for the STB as a managed delivery platform. Operators are increasingly turning to STBs not just for video content, but for integrated services, enhanced UI capabilities and application aggregation.
North America is feeling the brunt of the decline, falling from 80% to below 50% household penetration of pay-TV over the last decade. Meanwhile, regions such as Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe are showing greater resilience, albeit with modest contraction.
Worldwide, Futuresource expects the pay-TV base to shrink by 33 million households by 2029. To combat churn and market erosion, operators are investing in smarter boxes, transitioning to IP-based delivery and bundling their services. Feature-rich STBs supporting voice control, gaming and third-party streaming services are driving upgrade cycles, particularly among higher-tier operators.
“Vendor agility is now more critical than ever,” says Carl Hibbert, Research Director at Futuresource Consulting. “We’re in the midst of a volatile global economic environment, with increasing competition from connected TVs and retail streamers. And while pay-TV continues to lose ground to streaming, STB’s role remains strategic for operators aiming to retain control over service delivery and customer experience.”
Skyworth, Changhong and ZTE dominate the global vendor landscape, while Android Operator Tier STBs continue to gain share. These are being driven by operator appetite for feature-rich, app-centric platforms.
“The STB market can no longer focus on sheer volume,” adds Hibbert. “Now, it’s all about strategic value. We’re in a world where operators are maintaining a fine balance between managing pay-TV contraction while leveraging STBs as experience enablers, content hubs and gateways to value-added services. To survive and thrive, vendors, operators and platform providers must all look beyond the surface-level trends and unpack the real profit drivers. OS strategies, regional dynamics, regulatory risks and the shift toward hybrid delivery are all essential routes to shaping a successful roadmap.”
Futuresource expects Android STB shipments to exceed 10 million by 2029, with Latin America and Western Europe showing notable momentum.
