The number of pay-TV subscribers in Eastern Europe is forecast to fall from a peak of 82 million in 2018 to 74 million in 2027.
According to the latest report published by Digital TV Research, during that time the number of analogue cable subscribers will fall from 17 million to zero and number of digital pay-TV subscribers increase by 9 million.
It adds that the number of pay-TV subscribers will fall in 18 of the region’s 22 countries between 2021 and 2027. The total will drop by 4 million in 2022 alone, mainly due to Ukraine losing all of its 2.6 million subscribers.
Commenting on the findings of the report, Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Russia will account for half of the region’s pay-TV subscribers in 2027. However, Russia will lose 5 million pay-TV subscribers between 2021 and 2027 partly as sanctions worsen the economic situation and due to some analogue cable homes converting to FTA DTT”.
The report notes that sanctions on Russia are expected to continue for some time, with Western companies reluctant to re-enter the Russian market.
It also says that Russia is not as dependent on Western content as many other European countries. However, sanctions will result in economic hardship that will adversely affect Russian household spend. Pay-TV subscriptions are cheap, so the sector will not be hit that hard.
Murray continued: “We assume that Russia will withdraw from Ukraine before end-2022. After the Russian withdrawal, we expect massive investment in Ukraine by Western companies/governments as well as most refugees returning home.”
Broadband TV News comment.
Broadband TV News believes it is unlikely Ukraine will lose all of its pay-TV subscribers by 2027. Although we have no direct information about how pay-TV services are currently operating in the country, they are likely to recover once the war is over.
Furthermore, it cannot be assumed that Russia will withdraw from Ukraine. The conflict is ongoing, may last for some time and its outcome is uncertain.
