Two Ofcom analysts believe the BBC should be allowed to go ahead with the development of the iPlayer.
The views of Daniel Coleman and Adrien Cervera-Jackson don’t necessarily represent the official view of the regulator, but provide an insight into the thinking of two of the regulator’s economists.
They believe that the BBC’s development of its catchup and streaming service is unlikely to hinder the progress of the international streamers Netflix and Amazon, but could adversely impact the local ones All4 and My5.
The BBC is looking to transform the iPlayer from being just a catchup service to a destination in its own right that includes both live and catchup content.
Ofcom is interested because the BBC as a recipient of a large amount of public money, could be seen as using it to crowd out its competitors.
Coleman and Cervera-Jackson used BBC viewing data and modelling supplied by the BBC and its rivals to establish an evidence-based and data-driven view. They looked at where the new viewing that the BBC was seeking might come from, the answer unsurprisingly being its rivals.
The two acknowledged wider industry trends such as the growth of Netflix and how it was shifting viewer habits, and how they might have a greater impact on investment than the BBC’s proposals.
The BBC is of course not a normal service: “Unlike other broadcasters, it can provide more content for free to users, without needing to consider the profitability of its actions,” the report says.
“The potential for positive impacts on investment might be limited. In 2019, VOD is not a novel service where the BBC can kickstart audience interest; nor is VOD a sector where competition is currently weak and therefore the BBC can provide a major spur to investment.”
