However, at the same time the commercial audiences supplied by media owners will shrink by 1.6%, fuelling a 6.11% increase in media prices.
The report notes that traditional mass audiences are shrinking, with TV viewing being replaced by non-commercial viewing like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, HBO and eventually Disney+, reducing available audiences and creating fragmentation. Meanwhile, the use of ad blockers means that some audiences have low exposure to digital advertising. This rising demand and falling supply are increasing prices rapidly. The supply of commercial audiences has shrunk by 1.3% a year on average since 2010, according to exclusive Zenith research, while media inflation has averaged 6.5% a year.
The report also notes that India will take over as the second-biggest contributor to ad growth in the mid-2020s. It will also overtake China as the main source of growth in the Asia-Pacific. However, the US and China will account for 56% of all growth in ad expenditure over the next three years.
Online video and social media will remain the fastest-growing channels between 2019 and 2022, growing respectively by 16.6% and 13.8% a year on average, thanks mainly to continued increases in consumption on smartphones. Cinema will be in third place with 11.5% annual growth, driven by surging demand in China, but will still only account for 0.9% of global ad spend in 2022.
TV will record zero growth over the next three years, as price inflation counterbalances the decline in global audiences.
Commenting on the report, Jonathan Barnard, Zenith’s head of forecasting, said: “As geopolitical tensions wipe out most of the expected gains from sport and elections, 2020 will be a disappointing quadrennial year for the ad market.
“If the trade war is settled, we are more confident for 2021, forecasting 4.5% growth in global adspend despite the absence of the quadrennial events.”