Digital TV Research forecasts that Netflix will have 128 million subscribers by 2022, up by 44% from 89 million at end-2016. The Netflix Forecasts report estimates that the number of international subscribers will exceed US ones by early 2018.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “This impressive growth comes despite Netflix not having direct access to subscribers in the world’s largest country: China. Furthermore, Digital TV Research believes that Netflix will fall foul of Russian legislation. Due to be introduced in July 2017 this restricts foreign companies to only 20% of digital platforms’ equity.”
Source: Digital TV Research. Note: Old 60 refers to the 60 countries where Netflix was operational before January 2016.
North America and Western Europe will together supply 72% of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2022 – down from 81% in 2016. The Asia-Pacific region will boast more than 10 million subscribers by 2022; nearly triple the 2016 total.
Netflix expanded to 130 more countries in January 2016 to bring its total to 190 countries. The 130 new countries will have 14 million subscribers combined by 2022, up from 3 million at end-2016. The 2022 figure corresponds to 11% of Netflix’s global total.
The top five countries will supply two-thirds of Netflix’s subscribers by 2022. The US will still contribute 44% of subscribers by 2022. By 2022, 17 countries will have more than 1 million subs, up from 10 countries at end-2016.
Subscription revenues for Netflix will climb from $8.29 billion in 2016 to $14.86 billion in 2022. The 60 countries that started before January 2016 will provide 90% of revenues in 2022. However, Asia-Pacific will quadruple its revenues to more than $1 billion.
The top five countries will generate revenues of $10 billion in 2022. The US will contribute 48% of Netflix’s subscription revenues by 2022, down from 61% in 2016.
Digital TV Research also forecasts that Netflix’s content spend will climb to $8.5 billion by 2022 – or 57% of subscription revenues.