The digital growth is very strong, coupled with a strong demand for traditional TV advertising, despite a successive decline in linear viewing. The firm estimates that the total TV market in Sweden will reach a new record in turnover 2017.
Overall, the combined TV market, including both online and traditionally broadcasted TV, amounted to SEK22.6 billion in 2016. This means a 5% growth compared to 2015, which is fully attributed to online TV. Over the last few years, both ad funded web TV (AVOD) and subscribed pay services (SVOD) have grown rapidly. The biggest increase has been in pay, with services like Netflix, HBO Nordic and locals Viaplay and C More.
Mediavision estimates that close to SEK3.5 billion, or a 15% share of the total TV market, arose from online TV in 2016. This is where all growth is to be found, while traditional TV recorded a decline in ad revenues for the third year in a row and stable distribution revenues.
Mediavision makes the assessment that the effects of the transformation will only become clearer going forward. 2017 will therefore be another strong year for web TV, with an estimated annual growth of 25%. The streaming market is mainly driven by the fact that an increasing number of consumers purchase subscriptions, and that many also choose to have subscribe to several different services. However, this also means that the traditional pay TV services are being pressured, especially by the global players. Netflix is without comparison the biggest actor on the Swedish pay TV market today, in terms of the total amount of subscribers.
When it comes to traditional TV advertising, Mediavision’s forecast is positive. The demand from advertisers is estimated to be enough strong for the broadcasters to look forward to a slight increase in revenue in 2017. By raising the advertising rates, broadcasters can compensate for the continued decline in viewing. However, it is very clear that the traditional TV consumption will diminish further, especially among young and that the long-term revenue growth will occur within online TV.
In conclusion, Mediavision’s estimation is that the Swedish TV market will have a good year in 2017, characterised by a strong economic climate and a further shift towards digital.