Paying IPTV subscribers will overtake pay satellite TV ones in 2018, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.
The Digital TV Western Europe report forecasts that IPTV subscriptions will climb by 7.5 million (38%) between 2013 and 2020 compared with 1.2 million additions for both pay satellite TV (up by 5%) and pay DTT (up 22%). Digital cable will increase by nearly 13 million (up 42%).
Despite a return to more positive market conditions, pay TV subscriptions will only increase by 8.7 million (6.6%) between 2013 and 2020 to 103.65 million. However, the number of digital pay TV subscribers will increase by 28.1% (nearly 23 million), with analog cable subs falling from 14.03 million to zero by 2019.
Western Europe will reach 159 million digital TV households by end-2014, up by 4 million during the year and by 33 million since 2010. This total will grow to 174 million by 2020. Free-to-air DTT will remain the most popular platform – with 44 million primary homes by 2020. FTA satellite TV will supply a further 27 million.
Despite the number of pay TV homes increasing, pay TV revenues will remain flat at around $33 billion. Satellite TV will remain the most lucrative pay TV platform, but its revenues will fall every year from 2011 – despite subs numbers rising. Cable TV revenues peaked in 2012, but will lose $1.3 billion (10.2%) between 2013 and 2020 – although subscriber numbers will also fall (by 2.6%). Digital cable TV revenues will peak in 2017. IPTV revenues will climb by 26.3% between 2013 and 2020 to $4.91 billion (with subscriber numbers up by 38.4%).
The UK ($7,535 million) will still be the most lucrative pay TV market by 2020. Despite having the most pay TV subscribers by some distance, Germany’s pay TV revenues will be a lot lower than the UK – at $4,741 million. In fact, Italy ($4,539 million) will not be too far behind Germany despite having fewer than half its pay TV subscribers.
For more information on the Digital TV Western Europe report, please see the Broadband TV News shop.
