Ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the five next years to reach EUR182 billion in 2017.
Valérie Chaillou, FTTx lead analyst at IDATE, notes “growth perspectives remains still high when superfast technologies(1) represent 22% of broadband access subscriptions at mid-2013, and we expect ultra-fast broadband revenues will grow by 95% over the 5 next years to reach 182 billion EUR in 2017”
Eastern Europe will see its take up rate increase from 28% to 49% in 5 years, much higher than in Western Europe during all the period, from 21% at end 2012 to 32% at end 2017.
FTTH/B is the leading ultra-fast broadband solution, far from FTTLA then VDSL : FTTH/B represents 66% of FTTx subscriptions at mid 2013, compared to 22% for FTTLA and 12% for FTTN+VDSL
But the regional breakdown is very heterogeneous:
– FTTH/B is clearly the technology of choice in APAC whereas
– FTTLA is leading the ultra-fast broadband market in Western Europe and North America.
– VDSL is a technology of choice for several European incumbents.
– Latin America and Middle East countries are at the very beginning of their NGA rollouts: they will participate to the global growth of superfast broadband more and more in the coming years.
There are still questions from large players regarding the opportunity to deploy FTTH/B or VDSL, mainly in Europe.
– Several parameters are to be taken into account among which, of course, the required investment. Nevertheless FTTH/B rollouts did progress in certain European countries which are encouraging at a time when EU Telcos are seeing their margins shrinking.
– Some players are betting on the future capacities of copperbased networks.
FTTH Operators ranking: six Asian and four American telcos make up the world’s Top 10
Only one player involved in large FTTN+VDSL deployment among them (AT&T), then two cablecos upgrading their infrastructures to FTTLA (Comcast and TWC). 7 operators among this top 10 have choosen the FTTH/B technology.
In the charts below: compared growth of VDSL and FTTH/B subscribers, 2012-2017; Breakdown of Ultra-fast broadband technologies, at mid-2013; Top 10 FTTx worldwide players, at end 2013