Global fixed broadband households will reach 745 million in 2017, up from 473 million in 2010 and the 578 million expected by end-2012, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.
The Fixed Broadband Household Forecasts report covers 40 countries. From the 167 million additions between 2012 and 2017, China will supply 73 million and India 22 million – or 57% of global additions between the two countries.
China will remain the top nation by fixed broadband households in 2017, with 251 million homes – more than double the 120 million recorded in 2010 (when China was also the leader). The US will retain second place (101 million in 2017 – up by 20 million from 2010).
Global fixed broadband household penetration will be 49.2% by 2017, up from 33.5% in 2010 and 40.3% by end-2012. In 2017, household penetration will range from 93.7% in South Korea to 14.0% in India and Indonesia.
Report author Simon Murray said: “Perhaps just as interesting as the overall increase in fixed broadband household numbers is the shift of homes subscribing to faster download speeds. Many governments have initiated National Broadband Network projects, which involve extensive capital expenditure to build out modern (usually fiber) networks. In other countries, greater competition has encouraged operators to construct fibre networks from their own initiatives.”
Three-quarters of fixed broadband households received download speeds of less than 10Mbps in 2010, with only 2.3% above 30Mbps. The under 10Mbps proportion will have fallen to 58% by end-2012, and will drop to 31% by 2017. In contrast, the greater than 30Mbps proportion will reach 7.2% by end-2012, rapidly advancing to more than a quarter of the total by 2017.
About a tenth of fixed broadband households will receive speeds in excess of 100Mbps by 2017 – up from 1.6% at end-2012 and 0.4% in 2010. Sweden (25.5%) will have the highest proportion, with India (3%) the lowest. So there will be 75.7 million homes receiving speeds in excess of 100Mbps by 2017, up from 1.7 million in 2010 and 9.2 million at end-2012. The US (17.2 million) and China (15.1 million) will together supply 43% of the global total in 2017.
The declines in the less than 2Mbps category will be dramatic, with numbers halving between 2010 and 2017 to 71.7 million. China will drop from 60.0 million to 37.7 million. India will actually increase – from 6.6 million in 2010 to 11.4 million in 2017. However, the US will fall from 14.2 million in 2010 to nothing by 2017.
The Fixed Broadband Household Forecasts report is available from the Broadband TV News shop.