Five months after the Thailand floods there is speculation that 2012 shipments of hard disk drives, and by extension PVR/DVR products, will drop to as much as 40% below 2011’s already reduced volumes.
Technicolor recently indicated that reduced PVR shipments significantly reduced revenues during 2011, while Pace was forced into a further profit warning, which indirectly led to the departure of CEO Neil Gaydon.
“Current DVR predictions rest heavily on Western Digital’s rebound,” notes Anna Maxbauer, senior analyst, IMS Research and manager of the Online Set-top box Database. “Flooding of major HDD production facilities has cut output 30%, but the company is determined to restore pre-flood HDD production levels by Q4 2012.”
While Western Digital’s problems have been widely documented, rival manufacturer Seagate emerged from the Thai floods virtually unscathed, but is still hampered by interruptions to the local electrical motor, suspension assembly, wiring, and heat sink supply chain.
According to Maxbauer it is the pay-TV operators and the manufacturers that will take the pain. “Pay-TV consumers will not feel the price hike to the extent that operators and STB manufacturers will,” adds Maxbauer. “Operators understand that consumers’ willingness to absorb shocks in the equipment ecosystem is very limited.”
IMS says it expects DVR prices will drop quickly in 2013 after 2012’s high water mark.
