Worldwide digital terrestrial set-top box shipments will peak at 20.5 million shipments in 2012, according to IMS Research.
Nearly 25% of these set-top boxes will be shipped into Western European nations, achieving analogue switch-off by the European Commission’s recommended date of 2012.
“It is extremely unlikely that we will ever see shipment numbers like we saw in 2009, when the US completed ASO,” said John Kendall, author of the report, in a statement. “More than 35 million DTT set-top boxes shipped into the US that year, however, increasing technological advancements will mitigate such a large market offering in the future,” Kendall added.
Certain trends impacting the forecast include the increased presence of digital tuners on TV sets (iDTVs), must-carry DTT channel legislation and the proliferation of hybrid set-top boxes.
“Using France as an example, a country with must-carry DTT legislation,” Kendall continued, “one can see a very strong trend away from the FTA DTT platform. Naturally, this is strongly affected by low ARPU IPTV offerings with set-top boxes that include DTT tuners.”
The FTA DTT platform in France is expected to nearly disappear by 2015. Additionally, in emerging markets like Latin America, consumers are still replacing their old CRT televisions with flat panel TV sets. It is expected that this will have an impact on set-top box shipments for FTA DTT, as many of these TV sets will include a DTT tuner.
Demand for DTT HD 1-way set-top boxes is still expected to remain the market leader throughout the forecast, though HD-PVR set-top box shipments are expected to grow significantly in the next five years.