Viewers will continue to take the majority of their TV viewing from linear broadcasts through until at least 2015.
New research from the IHS Screen Digest TV Intelligence Service suggests PVR, on-demand and other forms of non-linear programming will account for only 15.8% of television viewing in the United States in 2015, up from 9.9% in 2010, with the remainder made up by traditional linear TV watching. In the UK, non-linear will account for 12.7% of television viewing in 2015, up from 7.8% in 2010.
“The rise of nonlinear television has struck panic into the television industry, with broadcasters dreading the impact of new technologies on their revenue streams,” said Richard Broughton, senior analyst, television, for IHS. “However, even in the leading countries for nonlinear television viewing—the United States and the United Kingdom—linear will account for the vast majority of television viewing through 2015. This means that for the television industry, DVR and on-demand viewing may not be as much of an imminent threat to profitability as feared.”
Other countries, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain, are expected to have even lower rates of non-linear television viewing.
On demand services are expected to suffer from a number of issues, such as content fragmentation, and a general lack of variety that will limit penetration. IHS says the introduction of high definition broadcasts by the linear channels have also kept viewers away from on demand.