City analysts are estimating that BSkyB could be about to announce the loss of 14% of its subscriber base. It is believed that the third quarter results due to be announced on Wednesday could see levels of churn at their highest point for more than ten years.
Brokers Citigroup are forecasting churn in the three months to the end of March to be 13.5%. Morgan Stanley, BSkyB’s official broker, as also estimated a 14% churn. However, Lehman Brothers which had earlier estimated a loss of 14.2% of subscribers has now reduced its forecasts to 13.5%.
Part of the reason for the increase in churn has been a change of policy within the satellite broadcaster, which resulted in a weeding out of subscribers paying discounted rates. In the last quarter this resulted in a fall of 27,000 customers from the 8.4 million subscriber base.
